Track 1 · Hurst cycle analysis · Lesson 1.3 · 7 min
Cycles inside cycles
Short cycles sit inside longer ones, like days inside weeks inside months. Understanding that nesting is what turns a squiggly chart into a readable structure.
Days inside weeks inside months
A calendar is a set of nested cycles: days fit inside weeks, weeks inside months, months inside years. Market cycles nest the same way. A short cycle runs its course two or three times while a longer cycle completes one swing.
So at any moment, price is being pushed by several rhythms at once. A short cycle might be rising while the longer one above it is falling. What you see on the chart is the sum.
How lows stack up
Because cycles nest, their lows line up. Every low of a longer cycle is also a low of the shorter cycles inside it. That is why the biggest lows on a chart are the ones where many cycles turn at once.
Marking each cycle’s lows under the candles makes this visible: one marker under a minor low, two under a medium one, three under a major one.
Reading the stack
When the longer cycles are rising, the lows of the short cycle tend to hold higher and its rallies run further. When the longer cycles are falling, the short cycle’s rallies are weak and its lows break lower.
In practice: let the longer cycles tell you the direction, and the shorter ones tell you the timing.
The ladder of typical lengths
Hurst named the common cycles by their typical length. The names are labels, not exact counts. Below, the approximate length in trading days on a five-day week.
| Name | About | Step from the one below |
|---|---|---|
| 5 days | 3 trading days | about 2 |
| 10 days | 6 trading days | about 2 |
| 20 days | 12 trading days | about 2 |
| 40 days | 24 trading days | about 2 |
| 80 days | 49 trading days | about 2 |
| 20 weeks | 98 trading days | about 2 |
| 40 weeks | 196 trading days | about 2 |
| 18 months | 1.5 years | about 2 |
| 54 months | 4.5 years | about 3 |
| 9 years | 9 years | about 2 |
| 18 years | 18 years | about 2 |
Most steps are about two. A couple are about three. And remember lesson 1.2: these are averages. Any one market will run longer or shorter. Why that matters.