Reading the FLD

The crossing

A crossing happens when a bar closes on the other side of the FLD. Closing above it after being below suggests the cycle has turned up. Closing below it after being above suggests it has turned down.

Use closes, not wicks. A wick that pokes through and closes back on the same side is not a crossing.

The price target

Measure how far price travelled from the cycle’s trough up to the crossing. Hurst observed that the move often carries on about as far again beyond the crossing. That point is the FLD target.

For a downward crossing, measure from the cycle’s peak down to the crossing and repeat it below.

The time target

The same mirror works for time. If the trough came 10 bars before the crossing, the target is due about 10 bars after it. Treat the date as a window, not a deadline.

Early, on time, late

Targets are reached early, on time, late, or not at all. Early often means a stronger longer cycle is helping. Late or missed often means a longer cycle is pulling the other way. Either result tells you something about the bigger picture.

When price wiggles around the line

Sometimes price crosses the FLD, slips back, and crosses again. Those small swings are shorter cycles at work. Lows of the same cycle cannot come that close together, so the target is still measured from the cycle’s own trough, not from each little dip.

Each new crossing nudges the target slightly, because the crossing point moves. The trough it is measured from stays the same.

Several FLDs at once

Each cycle has its own FLD. When price crosses the shortest one and is already on the same side of the longer ones, the cycles agree and the move has more support behind it. When the longer FLDs point the other way, expect the move to be weaker.